Where is the Bounce
The horse race political story of the day seems to be why the DNC last week had such a small effect on the presidential race poll numbers this week.
The democratic spin is that no bounce was expected because the race is close and people have made up their minds.
I have my own theory. I tried to watch Kerry's speech last week, but I fell asleep sometime after his daughters hamster CPR story and woke up to a bunch of talking heads after the speech was over. I tried to find out what Kerry said, but the CNN analysis crew seemed to be more interested in complimenting each other than re-capping Kerry's speech. As I recall, only one sound bit clip was replayed. I tuned in to Lou Dobbs the next day, and the speech was hardly covered. My theory is that the speech wasn't memorable or newsworthy enough to fuel a bounce. I say this without having seen the speech, which I'd still like to watch.
It hardly matters if there is a bounce or not except to the the horserace watchers who will have to wait to see if Bush gets a bounce to evaluate the reality of the idea that everyone has made up their minds. Those attempting the "minds made up" spin might be setting themselves up for some uncomfortable questions should Bush eek out a bounce after the RNC.
Hopefully, I will be able to stay awake for Bush's RNC speech. At least he usually manages to avoid mangling the language in the highly rehearsed speeches such as this.
Here's Kerry's speech if you want it. Sooo boring. Many times towards the beginning he's saying things that are simply incomprehensible. I'd like to go back and grab some quotes from it because it's so funny.
I wrote a little about it. I personally think that the Democratic party managed to pick a candidate who's a worse speaker than Bush is, whic is pretty amazing. Plus, the last Democrat to not get a bounce after their convention was George McGovern in 1972, and he went on to lose to Nixon in the biggest landslide the country had seen at that point.
By Keith on August 2nd, 2004 at 3:57 pmEr... "which".
By Keith on August 2nd, 2004 at 3:58 pmWhat?!?
By Joe W. on August 2nd, 2004 at 6:09 pmWait a minute. Was my post linked from your post originally? Man, a typo *and* giving a link to something you already linked to. Bad show for me. Sorry about that.
By Keith on August 3rd, 2004 at 12:19 amKeith, Isn't that what trackbacks are for?
Thanks for the link. There are other speeches on there I would like to watch when I get the chance. That site also semi-confirms my hypothesis that people weren't really interested in Kerry's speech. There is a section which says "Check out the videos that have been viewed the most:" and lists Clinton, Obama, Carter, Sharpton, and Teresa Heinz Kerry in that order. Apparently, the headline speeches from Edwards and Kerry aren't on the most viewed list. Because everyone has seen them, or because they were boring?
Joe W, I meant that Bush, while not a dynamic speaker, can at least avoid the worst of his english mangling and meandering in his highly rehearsed speeches, as the RNC speech will be.
By Jeff Moore on August 3rd, 2004 at 1:11 pmMy experience is that Republicans like Republican speeches and Democrats like Democratic speeches. Each hears the things they are looking to hear, which are different.
I would be interested to hear the things that were "simply incomprehensible." I sounded like a pretty standard political speech to me.
FYI - I think that the order Clinton, Obama, Carter, Sharpton, and Teresa Heinz Kerry is the order they gave their speeches.
By CT on August 3rd, 2004 at 11:47 pmIf I make a weblog post with funny quotes from the speech like I've been planning to I'll post a link to it here.
By Keith on August 5th, 2004 at 7:23 amIt Al Gore all over again
By degunking windows on September 15th, 2004 at 9:04 pm